Conservative Developmental Statism in East Central Europe and Russia

ABSTRACT

Russia, Hungary and Poland have been at the forefront of the illiberal counter-movement to neoliberalism. However, while there is increasing knowledge about how ‘populism’ as a discursive strategy has brought illiberals to power, especially in Poland and Hungary, we know surprisingly little about the socioeconomic programme and guiding principles of illiberals. In this article, we argue first that there is such a programme and that – notwithstanding the differences between countries – it features a similar programmatic core in the three countries that took shape in conservative think tanks and guides socioeconomic policy recommendations. Second, this programmatic core is best understood not so much as populism, but as a combination of economic nationalism – subordinating the economy to national interests and to the imperative of protecting national identity – and conservatism, reorienting economic policies to serve the traditional family and undo the perceived wrongdoings of post-communist elites, in particular, privatisation. We call this core conservative developmental statism. Thus illiberalism is reducible neither to populism nor to the whims of the power-holders of the day, and in these countries it needs to be seen in a wider context in which rightwing intellectuals have been working in parallel with politicians to give illiberalism a conservative content.     

Does high‐speed rail connection really promote local economy? Evidence from China’s Yangtze River Delta

High‐speed rail (HSR) has led to a transportation revolution in China. This paper uses the county‐level panel data of China’s Yangtze River Delta to investigate the effect of HSR connection on local economy. To address the issue of endogenous HSR route placement, we use a straight‐line strategy to construct potential HSR connection variables as instrumental variables of the actual HSR connection. Both the difference‐in‐differences and instrumental variable methods show that HSR connection impedes local economy, especially in peripheral regions. The impediment effect is channeled through population reallocation from peripheral to core areas and the restructuring of industries.     

中国沿海地区经济结构变动对海洋环境的影响

中国沿海经济结构的研究对海洋环境的发展意义重大,然而二者之间的定量关系及内在机理尚不完全清楚。以2007-2016年为研究时段,我国沿海11省(区、市)为研究区域,借助固定效应以及门槛模型,测度经济结构变动与海洋环境之间的关系。结果表明:①在经济结构中产业结构(-0.099)对海洋的弹性系数最大,其次是经济增速(-0.058),投资对象为正向影响,但不显著;非经济结构中,技术进步(0.052)的弹性系数最大,其中环境规制(-0.045)、人口规模(-0.045)抑制海洋环境的改善。②区域对比北部、东部海洋经济圈产业结构对海洋环境起抑制作用,另外,东部海洋经济圈环境规制、人口规模与海洋环境水平呈明显的负相关性;南部海洋经济圈相对于其他两个区域,结果不显著。③将产业结构、技术进步作为门槛变量,在各自的作用下分别存在双重门槛和单一门槛。产业结构门槛值为0.533、0.462,仅河北,福建未跨越第二门槛;科研能力门槛值为40,仅河北、福建、海南未跨过门槛值。因此,应适度调整产业结构,注重经济增长的质量,合理控制城镇人口的流动,积极鼓励科研创新,实现经济与海洋环境协调发展。     

“一带一路”沿线国家贸易开放与劳动收入份额

基于1990~2014年的跨国数据,实证研究贸易开放对"一带一路"沿线国家劳动收入份额的影响。分析发现,"一带一路"沿线国家的劳动收入份额均值下降了5%以上。采用固定效应模型和工具变量法的实证分析表明,整体上贸易开放抑制了"一带一路"沿线国家的劳动收入份额。进一步将"一带一路"沿线国家按照经济发展水平、要素禀赋、制度环境分组研究发现,贸易开放对高经济发展水平国家、资本密集型国家、资源密集型国家、制度环境良好国家的劳动收入份额具有显著负影响,但是对于低经济发展水平国家、劳动密集型国家、制度环境不佳国家的劳动收入份额具有显著正效应。而向中国贸易开放能够提高"一带一路"沿线国家的劳动收入份额,特别是对低经济发展水平国家的积极影响较强。上述实证结果具有稳健性。在此基础上提出了相应的政策建议。     

历史记载以来黄河下游河道变化及沉积环境分析

论文对近历史记载以来黄河下游河段河道变迁历史进行总结概括并重新绘制了黄河下游河道变迁示意图。黄河下游河段按流向分为北、东、南三个方向。北流河道相对分散,形成了一系列三角洲沉积,有的已被沿岸河流带来的沉积物覆盖;东流河道在入海口处河道变迁频繁,形成了规模较大的三角洲并持续至今。南流河道在摆动起始有多股漫流,经由淮河水系扩散,至苏北一带汇成一股由苏北汇入黄海并在苏北形成了规模较大的三角洲。结合相关研究成果,分析黄河河口沉积环境发现:黄河入海泥沙堆积有极高的沉积速率,在沉积年份每年可沉积数十厘米至数米,可以快速向海淤进形成三角洲,而黄河行水期结束后,则无沉积甚至被侵蚀。研究结果表明,北至海河、南到淮河的大范围内沉积环境的塑造均与黄河有关,黄河与下游的滦河、小清河、弥河、潍河、淮河、射阳河等相互影响,共同塑造了华北平原的沉积格局。     

破解“化工围江”难题的“湖北样本”和“江苏样本”

长江经济带化工产业在全国化工发展格局中占据重要地位。在长江经济带沿线11省份中，湖北省、江苏省化工产业规模位居前列，在化工产业快速发展的同时，“化工围江”难题日益凸显。湖北省、江苏省先后颁布实施一系列规划与政策，引导化工产业转型升级发展，成为破解“化工围江”难题的典型样本。通过对比分析“湖北样本”和“江苏样本”，得到破解“化工围江”难题的启示：科学理念引导化工产业绿色发展；规划先行推动化工产业创新发展；政策支持保障化工产业健康发展。     

政府角色定位对旅游治理的影响——以广西阳朔遇龙河景区为例

政府角色如何定位对旅游地能否实现可持续发展具有重要影响。文章以阳朔遇龙河景区为例,探讨其旅游地发展历程中政府角色定位的演变,解读不同阶段治理失灵的原因。研究发现:在旅游探查期,社区自主发展,政府基本缺位;在旅游参与期,政府以“规划者”角色介入,并主导运营管理,治理角色不中立,导致治理权威受损;在旅游大发展前期,政府治理目标部分错位加上在资源欠缺、政策准备不充分的情况下急于强制干预,最终导致治理失灵;在旅游大发展期,政府的治理能力和治理资源跟不上旅游规模的扩张,缺乏长效监管机制,难以实现有效治理。     

Disruptive framing in value creation and price setting: Transforming value with strategic frames of reference

Framing in business is frequently found in the digital economy with dramatic and innovative new products and disruptive value propositions. However, framing in business is not an exclusively digital economic strategy. Creating or revising frames of reference, value propositions, and pricing based on either new or newly framed offerings is a basic strategy skill that brings new differential value creation to customers and new price-setting models to firms. In this article, I define framing and explain its influence on managerial cognition as well as its application to value-based marketing and price setting. Using economic value theory and behavioral economics, I propose steps managers and decision makers can take in an effort to achieve framing innovation as a way to leverage the disruptive competitive advantages that flow from strategic frames of reference in the marketplace.     

The income inequality,financial depth and economic growth nexus in China

Income inequality has increased in China despite rapid economic growth. Income inequality could impinge on future development, leading to social tension or political instability. Our study investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between three important macroeconomic indicators—income inequality, economic growth and financial depth. We utilise a two-step procedure of ARDL bounds and Granger causality for the analysis. The bounds test indicates the presence of a cointegrating relationship between income inequality, financial depth and economic growth in the long run. In the second step, we utilise the Granger causality approach. Results show a bidirectional causality between financial depth-growth and a unidirectional causality between inequality-growth in the short run. In the long run, results reveal that growth and financial depth determine Gini. Our findings provide support for the inequality-widening effect due to economic growth and higher credit provided to the private sector. We find no evidence of inequality-narrowing or income-equalising effect in the long run for the period of study. It is possible that the government's inclusive growth policies which started less than a decade ago have not taken effect for us to capture the inverted U-shape income equalising effect significantly.     

经济政策不确定性与企业投资趋同行为

文章以2003-2017年A股非金融类上市公司为研究样本,考察经济政策不确定性对企业投资趋同行为的影响。研究发现,经济政策不确定性的升高会显著增强企业投资趋同行为,该影响效应在信息优势企业有所减弱,在资产不可逆程度较高企业有所增强。分行业检验发现,在管制性行业以及景气度较低行业中,经济政策不确定性对企业投资趋同行为的影响减弱。进一步研究发现,在经济政策不确定性不断攀升的背景下,实体投资趋同性会带来更为严重的金融化,特别是在行业实体投资总体趋于放缓的情况下,企业金融化现象更加严重。该研究为宏观经济波动下企业投资趋同行为提供了经验证据。